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A recent poll by the Siena Research Institute shows Congresswoman Elise Stefanik as the leading Republican candidate for the 2026 New York gubernatorial race. Conducted from May 12 to 15, the poll indicates that Stefanik, who represents New York's 21st District, is favored by 35% of registered Republican voters. She leads over Congressman Mike Lawler, who garnered 22%, and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, who received 11%. However, 30% of respondents remain undecided about their preferred candidate.
Stefanik has expressed strong interest in running for governor, a position Republicans have not held since George Pataki. Her potential candidacy comes after her nomination to become President Trump's ambassador to the United Nations was withdrawn to maintain a slim majority in the House. Governor Kathy Hochul, the incumbent, has already begun to target Stefanik in her public statements. According to WKTV, Hochul has openly challenged Stefanik, saying, "Bring it on."
While Stefanik leads among Republicans, her overall favorability is underwater by eight points, with 25% viewing her favorably and 33% unfavorably. This may be attributed to her close ties with President Trump, who is also viewed unfavorably by New York voters. The poll did not test a direct matchup between Stefanik and Hochul. However, it revealed that 55% of all voters would prefer "someone else" as governor, compared to 36% who support Hochul. The Hill reports that Hochul remains the frontrunner in a potential Democratic primary, leading over possible opponents like Lieutenant Governor Antonio Delgado and Representative Ritchie Torres.
As the race unfolds, messaging around issues such as transgender rights and immigration could influence voter opinions. According to City & State NY, these topics have proven effective for Republicans in past elections and may play a significant role in Stefanik's campaign strategy. With over a year until the primary, both Stefanik and her potential opponents have time to solidify their positions and appeal to New York voters.